What If Climate Change Impacts The World's Top Three Rice Exporters? : An Econometric Analysis Of Panel Data
Keywords:
Productivity and Climate change relationship, Rice exporters, Econometric analysis, Panel dataAbstract
This research paper examines the impact of climate change on the top three rice exporters: India, Vietnam, and Thailand. By analyzing Effects and Risks of Climate Change for Rice Production, the study aims to understand the consequences of climate change on rice production, assess vulnerability, and provide insights for policymakers.
Using panel data analysis to eliminate the trend and variance of the data, by converting the data into the form of a Natural logarithm to reduce the impact of long-term influences on time, before using it for econometric analysis according to the OLS equation, and the Stochastic Production Function theory framework, the study establishes the climate-productivity relationship. Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) are used to address heterogeneity and autocorrelation. Numerical simulations are conducted to assess future changes in rice production under different climate scenarios, utilizing climate variable coefficients from econometric analysis.
The findings reveal the sensitivity of rice yields to Temperature mean (p<0.00) and Precipitation (p<0.00) variations. They provide insights into potential future changes in rice production. Overall, the study highlights the urgency of implementing adaptation and mitigation strategies to ensure the sustainability and resilience of the rice sector in the face of climate change challenges.
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