An Investigation of Provincial Birth Rate in Thailand

Abstract

This study aims to 1) compare the birth rates and socio-economic factors as well as national governance factors of Thailand with other ASEAN countries, and 2) analyze the provincial socio-economic factors influencing Thailand's birth rate. The research is an empirical study using panel data from eight ASEAN countries and provincial data from 77 provinces in Thailand. The findings show that birth rates in all ASEAN countries are continuously declining, in line with global trends. Thailand has the second-lowest birth rate after Singapore, while it also has the second-highest death rate. Therefore, Thailand is likely to face a labor shortage unless the government implements clear and effective policies to address this issue. However, it was also found that national governance positively affects birth rates. Given Thailand's lower governance quality compared to Singapore, and the fact that even Singapore has not been able to implement policies to restore its birth rate to previous levels, this raises concerns about the capacity of the Thai government to manage this issue effectively. For provincial socio-economic factors influencing birth rates, it was found that population density and the number of factories per capita have a positive relationship with birth rates. In contrast, factors negatively related to birth rates include provincial per capita income, the proportion of elderly people, the proportion of female labor force, and the suicide rate. The findings of this study further enhance the understanding of population changes, offering valuable insights for policies designed to slow the decline in birth rates, which in turn affects the labor force and future national development.