Forcasting Of Cement Consumption In Thailand
Keywords:
Forecasting, Cement, Consumption, Regression Analysis, Combined ForecastsAbstract
This research is an applied research designed to determine macroeconomic and demographic impacts on Thai’s cement consumption to develop 5 years-forecasting models for both volume and growth in Thailand’s demand for cement. Several techniques including Multiple Linear Regression, time-series models such as Simple and Holt’s Exponential Smoothing, ARIMA, and combined-forecast models were developed and examined to attain forecasting accuracy. The results showed that the combined–forecast model was the most accurate model according to its lowest RMSE for both volume and growth. Based on the results, the total cement consumption in Thai market in 2021 should fall between 36,223 and 42,082 thousand tons. However, the volume model resulted in 753 thousand tons of RMSE, lower than 2,099 thousand tons of RMSE in the growth model.
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